Neither of the top two World Baseball Classic favorites is safe entering the final day of the first round.
With only Wednesday’s slate of games to play, Team USA and the Dominican Republic both sit at 2-1, and could see their chances to advance to the tournament’s knockout stages if they lose.
Team USA faces Colombia, which is tied at 1-2, and a win on Wednesday will see it level with its rival in the table. Meanwhile, 2–1 Canada and 2–1 Mexico would play each other earlier on the same day, with the winner guaranteed to advance and the loser either elimination (should Team USA win) or a three-way tie with the US and Colombia. There will be a one-way tie. American loss event (more on that later).
Meanwhile, the situation in the Dominican Republic is much simpler. Venezuela has already advanced 3-0, while Puerto Rico is also 2-1. The Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico play in straight-elimination games on Wednesday.
Pools A and B have already been decided, with Cuba and Italy emerging from A through tiebreakers after all five teams finished 2–2, while Japan went undefeated in Pool B after a 3–0 draw. 1 would be Australia.
When does Team USA play in the World Baseball Classic?
The USA-Colombia game at Chase Field in Arizona is set for 10 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1. Canada plays at 3 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 2 at the same venue, while the Puerto Rico-Dominican Republic match at 7 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1 at Londepot Park in Miami.
world baseball classic pool c standings
Here are the full standings entering Wednesday, with every team but Great Britain having played four of the five games. The Brits have already played with all four teams and been eliminated:
|
Team |
Victory |
Loss |
|
America |
2 |
1 |
|
Canada |
2 |
1 |
|
Mexico |
2 |
1 |
|
Colombia |
1 |
2 |
|
Great Britain |
1 |
3 |
So it’s a win and win for each of the big three North American countries. If Team USA wins, it advances and the losing Mexico-Canada team is eliminated. Lose it, however, and this is where things get very complicated.
What happens in the tiebreaker for Team USA?
Here are the WBC’s first and second tiebreaker rules, taken directly from MLB’s site:
The team that wins the game between the tied teams will be ranked higher. If three or more teams are tied and one of those teams has won its games against all other teams, it will be ranked higher. Similarly, if one of those teams loses its games against all other teams it is tied with, it will be placed at the bottom.
Standing teams will be ranked according to the lowest quotient of the fewest runs scored divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in the game in that round among the tied teams.
A US loss would result in a three-way tie between them, Colombia and the losers, Mexico-Canada. The first tiebreaker would depend on that last team, as Colombia would advance if the other two teams were the US and Mexico, as it would have defeated both teams.
If Mexico wins and holds Canada in a three-way tie, however, we proceed to the second tiebreaker, as the US has defeated Canada, Canada has defeated Colombia and Colombia has defeated the US, in that case In, America is looking good, but not great.
Here are the run coefficients for Team USA, Canada and Colombia in games involving ties. Canada allowed a total of 12 runs against 48 strikeouts in their games against the US and Colombia. Team USA allowed one run against 21 outs in their win over Canada, while Colombia allowed five runs against 27 outs in their loss to Canada.
We don’t need to go into the nitty gritty of the math, so here’s the position at play. If Team USA loses by four or fewer runs, it advances as long as it allows no more than 11 runs. If Colombia wins by five or more runs, it advances as long as it allows no more than 13 runs. Basically, Canada will be praying for a high-scoring game, while the US will enter the game with a virtual four-run lead against Colombia.
Here’s a hopefully helpful guide showing what happens to each pair of winners on Wednesday:
|
mexico won |
canada wins |
|
|
usa wins |
Mexico, USA |
USA, Canada |
|
colombia won |
Mexico, 3-way tiebreaker |
Canada, Colombia |
Nobody ever said playing pool was easy.
world baseball classic pool d standings
As a reminder, here are things to do in Miami:
|
Team |
Victory |
Loss |
|
Venezuela |
3 |
0 |
|
Dominican Republic |
2 |
1 |
|
Puerto Rico |
2 |
1 |
|
israel |
1 |
2 |
|
Nicaragua |
0 |
4 |
Given the hype behind both teams entering the tournament, it’s a testament to the chaos of the World Baseball Classic that Wednesday gives both the US and DR a very real chance of elimination.
Team USA’s lineup is so stacked that it was batting 2022 MLB All-Star Jeff McNeil at the No. 9 spot. The Dominican Republic began the tournament at the same venue with two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger winner Gary Sánchez.
Both teams faced some questions surrounding their pitching, but when they faced the likes of Japan and Cuba it was considered a topic of conversation. Not in the first round.
