As the USFL enters the final three weeks of the regular season, pretty much every team remains in the hunt. One of my early comments for the 2023 season was that we may be headed for a widening divide between the haves and have-nots. Coaching changes occurred on three of the four teams that missed the playoffs in 2022. However, it looked like the teams were headed for a huge disparity after a few weeks, it couldn’t have been more wrong. Only two games separate the three teams with the best records (4–2) and the three with the worst (2–4). Both the last-place teams in their divisions are only one game behind the division leader in the standings. The USFL won’t be confused with the NFL anytime soon, but there is a point of parity.
The Birmingham Stallions, last year’s champions, sit atop the futures board as co-favorites with the New Orleans Breakers to win it all at +325. It appears that the Breakers started the season as a team on fire. New Orleans’ 4–0 start included a 45–31 victory over the Stallions in Week 3. But the wave of momentum came crashing down for New Orleans, which dropped two straight while scoring only 10 points in each game. Birmingham and New Orleans are set for a rematch to kick off Week 7 in the USFL’s marquee game. We went 3-1 on our best bets last week, playing primarily totals, and I’ll be adopting a similar strategy for this weekend’s games.
Birmingham Stallions (-1.5) at New Orleans Breakers (O/U 45.5)
This is going to be an intriguing game, as the Breakers’ previously potent offense has looked to be in tatters over the last two weeks. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson has a history of running hot and cold dating back to his career in the CFL. What is the best remedy for conflict crime? How about a defense that lit up for 45 points and 7.3 yards per game. On paper, the total at 45.5 looks reasonable considering that both teams have only crossed this number in two of the six games. But all but one of those six matches were against each other. I don’t think New Orleans’ offense will explode for another big day, but with Birmingham’s defense looking shaky (5.2 yards per play) last week against Michigan, I’ll take my chances that Brecher will shake the chains. If New Orleans gets half of the 45 points they put up in the last meeting, I’m sure Birmingham will do their part to get us more than the total. Bet: Over 45.5
Philadelphia Stars (+1.5) at Pittsburgh Maulers (O/U 39.5)
Pittsburgh Unders is the best bet you can make on this league. I’m betting 5-0-1 on the season and seeing the Maulers against Philadelphia once again gets me loaded. The Philadelphia offense hasn’t been pretty. QB Case Cooks has thrown seven interceptions in six games, and the Stars were held to 2.9 yards per game against New Jersey in one of the most bizarre games of the season two weeks ago. They won the game 24–21, but needed eight field goals which were aided by four New Jersey turnovers. The offense finally showed life last week in a 16-10 win over New Orleans, but the red zone continued to be a major problem (0-for-3). It is unlikely that the Stars will keep up the momentum against Pittsburgh’s punishing defense. Pittsburgh’s games averaged a combined 31.6 points on the season and failed to exceed 34 in all but two games. The books eventually opened up to Maulers under 40, but they didn’t drop low enough. condition: under 39.5
Houston Gamblers (-3.5) (O/U 42.5) at Memphis Showboats
With the teams seeing each other for the second time in a week, the first matchup of the Showboats and Gamblers could be the most exciting game of the season. Memphis roared back to take a 26–23 lead behind a 16-point fourth quarter, only to see Kenji Bahar take the Gamblers down for the game-winning score with only 18 seconds remaining. Some points to note. It was QB Cole Kelly’s first start for Memphis, and the Showboats have not lost since, winning three straight to bring their record to 3–3. RB Mark Thompson is back healthy for Houston, and the Gamblers are 4-0 on the season with him in the lineup. This is definitely a clash of the hottest teams in the league, and there are a few reasons why the Gamblers are coming out ahead. Outside of Kelly taking over at quarterback, his ability to create turnovers on defense has fueled the Showboats’ streak. I’m not sure that happens against Houston. The Gamblers won the turnover battle in the previous matchup and did not commit a turnover in last week’s win over New Jersey. I think over is also a concrete form. bet: houston -3.5
Michigan Panthers (+6.5) at New Jersey Generals (O/U 40.5)
The Michigan offense really struggled the first time these teams played. Panthers QB Josh Love only threw for 3.3 yards per pass attempt before being pulled for Carson Strong, who wasn’t much better. Michigan has the potential to be the worst team in the league, but putting up 6.5 points with a team that averages less than two touchdowns a game is asking for trouble. New Jersey is No. 1 in both offensive tackle and defense, so there’s no secret to how it wants to play. Michigan doesn’t have the offensive firepower to threaten this Gen defense, and I think it’s likely that it scores less than the 13 points it did in the last meeting. The Panthers are averaging 10.7 points per game on their four-game losing streak and now face the league’s worst scoring defense. It sounds like 21-10. condition: under 40.5
