The NBA playoffs usually aren’t unpredictable.
Teams that are favored usually go deep into the postseason. This is changing a bit in the load management era, but there is some semblance of order. Good teams usually win more.
That’s part of what made this year’s conference finals so much fun.
Underdogs covers every single game in the Conference Finals. The underdog has won straight five times in seven matches.
Most casual bettors prefer favorite betting. If he does so in this round of the NBA playoffs, a lot of damage is done.
It’s been a great summer in the East
The former in particular has been turned upside down because everyone was slow to realize how good the Miami Heat have been.
The Heat were a +400 underdog in their series against the Boston Celtics. The point spreads for each game look laughable in retrospect. Miami was an 8.5-point underdog in Game 1. The Heat won. And after that win, Boston was an even bigger favorite in Game 2. Miami won 10 straight as underdogs. And after Miami won twice in Boston — after defeating the Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks in the first two rounds — the Celtics were Even then Picked up in game 3. Miami was a 4.5-point home underdog and won 26.
you can’t blame betmgm To continue making Boston the favorite. In Game 3, a Celtics team down 0–2, yet still the road favorite, received 58% of money bets on the spread.
After embarrassing Boston in Game 3, the Heat are getting more respect for Game 4. Miami is a 1.5-point favorite. And as of Tuesday morning, 74% of money bets on spreads at BetMGM are on the heat.
Given how well underdogs have fared in the conference finals, perhaps it’s Boston’s time to shine.
West Underdogs Covered Every Game
The Western Conference Finals weren’t quite as crazy. The No. 1 seeded Denver Nuggets won. But the way the line changed for Games 3 and 4 was curious.
The Nuggets were favored in the first two games, but the Lakers were covered by half a point in both games (this was a push in Game 1 for bookmakers who had the Lakers at +6).
It got a little awkward when the series moved to LA. The Lakers were surprisingly 5.5-point favorites in Game 3 after losing both games in Denver. This game was an 11-point turnaround from 2, when the Nuggets were favored by 5.5. Denver won Game 3, and then won Game 4 as a 3.5-point underdog.
The oddsmakers set up a bad line in Game 4. It’s hard to see how they’ll make the Lakers a 3.5-point underdog to a Nuggets team that was the No. 1 seed, clearly outplayed Los Angeles in the first three games and was up 3-0. 0 in the series. It was a mistake and the bookies took advantage. In Game 4, 85% of the money bets on the spread and 84% of the money bets on the moneyline were on the Nuggets, who won outright.
We’ll see how the NBA Finals goes. There won’t be the Lakers or (presumably) the Celtics, who have lines based on public money. Underdog bettors wish these conference finals would never end.
