Description
When: Sunday afternoon 1:40
Where: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, North Carolina
TV: CBS
radio: KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City, KKGQ (92.3 FM) in Wichita.
Satta Line: from Kentucky 2.5
over under: 145
starting lineup
|
P |
No. |
Kentucky |
ht. |
Year |
ppg |
|
F |
34 |
oscar tshebwe |
6-9 |
Senior |
16.2 |
|
F |
0 |
Jacob Toppin |
6-9 |
Senior |
12.7 |
|
F |
24 |
chris livingston |
6-6 |
Therefore. |
6.2 |
|
Yes |
12 |
Antonio Reeves |
6-5 |
Senior |
14.6 |
|
Yes |
22 |
cayson wallace |
6-4 |
Father |
11.4 |
|
P |
No. |
Kansas State |
ht. |
Year |
ppg |
|
F |
35 |
nequan tomlin |
6-10 |
junior |
10.2 |
|
F |
11 |
keonte johnson |
6-6 |
Senior |
17.7 |
|
Yes |
13 |
Desi Sills |
6-2 |
Senior |
8.7 |
|
Yes |
5 |
cam carter |
6-3 |
Therefore. |
6.4 |
|
Yes |
1 |
Marquis Nouvel |
5-8 |
Senior |
16.8 |
About No. 6 Kentucky (22-11):
The Wildcats are coming off a 61–53 win over Providence in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Kentucky won that game thanks to an incredible 25 rebounds from big man Oscar Tshebwe. But the Wildcats got scoring contributions from all over. Kentucky is big in every situation. All five of its starters are 6-foot-4 or taller. Kentucky has had all kinds of success on the glass and holds offensive rebounds to an elite level. Nearly 40% of its offensive possessions result in second-chance opportunities.
About No. 3 Kansas State (24-9):
The Wildcats are coming off a 77–65 win over Montana State in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. K-State struck back early in the second half of that game and never looked back. Marquis Nouvel finished with 17 points and a career-high 14 assists. Keonte Johnson had 18 points and eight rebounds. Nae’Qwan Tomlin and David N’Guessan both hit double figures in the paint. K-State defends the three-point line at an elite level but struggles with turnovers. Seems like limiting errors is the most important part of his game.
Prediction
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: K-State and the Kentucky Wildcats are about to play an NCAA tournament game for supremacy.
These teams are going to face each other in the post-season for the third time in the last decade.
Kentucky won the first meeting in 2014, 56–49. K-State won the last meeting 61–58 in the 2018 Sweet 16. Now we get a rubber match.
It could go either way.
K-State will wear the white jerseys as the better seed, but Kentucky is favored by 2 1/2 points. John Calipari’s team will also have the advantage of a bigger crowd on Sunday, as the Big Blue Nation fills the Greensboro Coliseum with fans.
This could be a key factor in how much K-State has struggled at home this season. But there will be a few hundred purple fans in attendance. So the angle may have been over blown. The advantage of rest over a quick turnaround makes the advantage to Kentucky seem more meaningful.
On the court, K-State needs to let Kentucky respond to the way it plays, not the other way around. Jerome Tang’s team defends the three-point line very well. If it can stop Kentucky from making outside shots and be an offensive on offense, with Nae’Qwan Tomlin and David N’Guessan guarding the perimeter to Oscar Tshiebwe, it will take its chances.
But Kentucky quickly grabs offensive rebounds. If Kentucky can score a bunch of easy points on second-chance opportunities and Tomlin gets into early foul trouble against Tshibwe, it could be a long day for K-State.
Kentucky doesn’t force turnovers at a high rate (16.7% of the time), so this is good news for K-State.
Calipari made an interesting comment on Saturday. He said that whenever Kentucky lost a game this season, an opposing player seemed to do something “crazy” against them. Can anyone on K-State’s roster reach “crazy” levels in this game?
Can Marquis Nouvel hit some people three times? Can Keonte Johnson flirt with 30 points? Can Tomlin score 20 points?
If the answer is yes, then I think K-State is headed to the Sweet 16. If the answer is no, Kentucky will move on.
It’s a tough call, but I’m going to give the slight edge to Kentucky here. It boasts the size advantage against K-State at every position, and that can make it difficult for K-State guards to drive in the lane and be productive off the dribble.
There seem to be more paths to victory for Kentucky in this game than for K-State, and versatility is king this time of year.
Kentucky 72, K-State 68
Previous Game Predictions: K-State 77, Montana State 64 (Actual: K-State 77, Montana State 65).
Season Record: 23-10.
Season record against the spread: 17-16.
