With the French Open starting on Sunday at Roland Garros, the ATP’s second major of the year is finally here. This year’s edition will look very different with the absence of the king of clay, Rafael Nadal. Rafa announced last week that he would not only be pulling out of his most successful tournament (14 titles), he would also be stepping away from the sport with hopes of returning in 2024.
Nadal’s ouster has opened the door for a potential new champion. Here’s a preview and picks for who will win the 2023 Men’s French Open.
Carlos Alcaraz (+165)
Novak Djokovic (+260)
Daniil Medvedev (+700)
Holger Rune (+750)
Janick the Sinner (+1100)
Casper Rude (+1400)
surface and format
Roland Garros is a clay-court tournament played in a best-of-five-set format. Expect lots of breaks of serve and break backs. So far, weather conditions look solid with warm temperatures and no rain or wind, at least in the early stages.
The big factor: Best five sets. A strong mindset is required to excel in large companies. If a player comes down two sets, does he have the mental fortitude to fight back and go the full five sets with Djokovic or Alcaraz? If a player is two sets up, can he muster the aggression to close it out in three or at worst four? A big win requires grit, aggression, creativity, stamina and mental toughness.
lower half of the draw
Medvedev, Sinner, Rudd or Roon are the most likely winners in the bottom half of the draw.
Medvedev may now prefer clay after winning the Italian Open in straight sets on Rooney, 20. The conditions – cold and rainy, which muted the bounce of the ball – were conducive to Medvedev’s excellence. The cooler temperatures allowed the ball to hit more flat and slower, which ultimately favored better baseliners. The best baseline player right now is Medvedev. So far, it is not cold and rainy but warm and sunny in Paris. Medvedev however has a favorable draw. It is a better bet to bet on Medvedev to win his quarter than to win Roland Garros.
After winning the ATP Masters 1000 Paris in early November by defeating Djokovic in the final, Rooney reached the final at the ATP Masters Monte-Carlo and won the ATP 250 Munich last month. His style of play is starting to resemble Djokovic’s: a great returner who is strong from the baseline, with a power forehand and a killer drop shot. Plus, he has the speed and stamina to maintain a baseline game.
Who will make it to the final from the bottom half of the draw? It’s hard to predict. It is completely open.
Papi can be disruptive as his speed and topspin action will be even stronger in hot and sunny conditions. If Sinner is eliminated from his quarter, he will most likely face Rune in the semi-finals.
top half of the draw
It should be called, “Why Carlos Alcaraz will win the 2023 French Open.”
You look at both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic and think, “Alcaraz has a tough draw.” Alcaraz will have to do so against some of the strongest players on clay if he wants to win. I still like his chances.
Alcaraz is firing at its peak. While Djokovic is the GOAT (in my opinion), I doubt his current physical form and rhythm. The Joker isn’t in “dominate everything” form right now. The ground is catching up, and Djokovic hasn’t been playing at his best as he struggles with hamstring and elbow injuries.
I would not worry about Tsitsipas as he is not a strong opponent at this point in his career. His backhand is still a weakness and it often gets exposed, and Tsitsipas recently parted ways with his coach. Either the players are finding their game, or he just doesn’t have the skills to break through.
Alcaraz lost in Rome to the qualifiers in straight sets, but had won three of his last four tournaments prior to that. This isn’t a surprising loss after a winning streak right before a major.
Best Bet: Carlos Alcaraz to win the French Open
It was Alcaraz’ third Roland Garros main draw appearance but only his second game without qualifying. Alcaraz has far more experience now, going 4-0 this year against top-10 opponents and 20-2 on clay. He has the tools, the mindset and the experience to win his second major.
